By Brent Robillard

The second time around

Stockholm in October feels like the city has slipped into its favourite wool sweater: the summer crowds are gone, the air is crisp and cool, and the low Scandinavian light seems to make everything—cobbled streets, ochre-coloured buildings, quiet waterfronts and the islands of the archipelago—look a little more cinematic. Cafés become especially inviting, with coffee and cinnamon buns providing the perfect excuse to duck indoors. There’s something wonderfully atmospheric about wandering Gamla Stan or Södermalm under a grey autumn sky, watching ferries move across dark water and then settling into a warm bar as the city begins to glow around you.

Yes, there are plenty of reasons to visit Stockholm in the fall. But I go for the watches.

Next week, I will return to Kaplans Auktioner to photograph the collection assembled for its November Important Watches auction. Ahead of the trip, I went back through my photographs from last year and looked up what happened to the watches after we had handled them. A few individual results caught my attention. Then I began counting.

Across the 121 lots in Kaplans’ 15 November 2025 Important Watches sale, Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe, and Omega accounted for approximately US$744,000 of the US$1.10 million (SEK7,432,300 of the SEK10,954,000) published hammer total. That is 67.9 per cent. Rounded to the nearest whole number, four names took 68 per cent of the money bid successfully at the hammer.

Together, they represented just over half the catalogue. All but one of their 65 lots sold.

That struck me as a useful place to examine a much larger question. Why do the same names occupy so much of our attention when watches are new, and continue to attract it decades later—a second time around?

Gold Rolex Daytona in hand — Rolex, Cartier, Patek, and Omega account for 55% of the Swiss watch market @calibre321

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The familiar names at the top

Earlier this year, LuxeConsult founder Oliver Müller put a number to the concentration in Swiss watchmaking. In a February interview with BILANZ, the co-author of the annual Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult industry report identified Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe, and Omega as accounting for 55 per cent of the market.

This is an estimate of Swiss watch retail market share by value, rather than a count of every watch sold worldwide. It also describes the new watch business. Our Kaplans calculation concerns the hammer prices achieved in one secondary-market auction. The two percentages measure different things.

They nevertheless give us a reason to look more closely at the same four names.

My recent piece on Japanese watchmaking considered how Seiko, Citizen, and Grand Seiko are giving collectors reasons to question the usual progression towards Switzerland. The auction room offers another perspective. Familiar names remain remarkably persuasive, even when the watches carrying them have already lived through several owners, fashions, and generations of collectors.

I think part of the explanation is straightforward. It takes very little effort to recognize a Submariner, Tank, Speedmaster, or Nautilus once you have spent some time around watches. Their names provide a starting point. There are references to research, variations to learn, and earlier examples against which to judge the watch being offered.

For a buyer contemplating a substantial purchase, that accumulated knowledge can be reassuring. It can also be absorbing. A collector may begin by wanting a Rolex and end up caring intensely about a particular dial, handset, or case reference. The famous name opens the door to a much more particular interest. That does not tell us why any individual bidder raised a paddle. It does help explain why an established watch can retain an audience long after its original advertising campaign has disappeared.

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What the Stockholm results show

The November 2025 sale provides a manageable sample: large enough to show a pattern, small enough to examine watch by watch. Our calculation uses the published results for every listed lot. Lots marked “Passed” contribute no realised value, and the totals exclude buyer’s premiums and fees.

Brand	Lots offered	Lots sold	Hammer total in SEK	Share of total hammer value
Rolex	36	35	4,376,500	40.0%
Patek Philippe	5	5	1,584,800	14.5%
Cartier	11	11	889,500	8.1%
Omega	13	13	581,500	5.3%
Four brands combined	65	64	7,432,300	67.9%
Entire auction	121	108	10,954,000	100%

Rolex supplied the largest share of the four-brand total, accounting for almost 40 per cent of the entire sale’s hammer value. Patek Philippe reached roughly 14.5 per cent with only five lots. Cartier and Omega contributed through broader selections at lower aggregate values.

Together, the four names made up 53.7 per cent of the offered lots and 67.9 per cent of the hammer value. Their combined sell-through rate was 98.5 per cent, against 89.3 per cent for the auction overall.

There is a supply story inside those numbers, too. An auction catalogue reflects what owners consign and what the house selects. A large Rolex offering creates more opportunities for Rolex sales. The watches’ materials, complications, condition, and rarity also affect the total. This sample cannot tell us how an otherwise identical catalogue filled with different brands would have performed.

What it does establish is that bidders found something worth buying in almost every lot offered by these four brands. The concentration was visible in both the catalogue and the completed transactions.

Cartier De Santos on wrist — Cartier accounted for 8.1% of the Kaplans Important Watches Auction in 2025 @calibre321

Japanese watches are having a moment

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The watches behind the percentages

One of the pleasures of returning to these results is that I can connect them with watches we photographed and handled during our earlier visit to Kaplans. The numbers lead back to particular objects.

The Rolex Submariner reference 5508, lot 42, is a good example. Kaplans dated it to the third quarter of 1958 and described its chapter-ring gilt dial, damaged plastic crystal, and later Oyster bracelet. The estimate was SEK82,000. It hammered at SEK175,000—more than twice its estimated value.

That result is interesting partly because the catalogue gave buyers something more useful than a famous model name. It described the watch’s condition and components. A vintage Submariner comes with a long list of questions, and those details belong in any serious discussion of its value.

The Omega Railmaster, lot 34, offered a different kind of appeal. This circa-1960 CK 2914 had a calibre 284, a 38 mm steel case, and an original bracelet. Against an estimate of SEK37,000, it achieved SEK75,000. Here was a vintage tool watch, already more than six decades old, again attracting a result just over twice the house’s estimate.

At a higher price level sat lot 62, the Patek Philippe Nautilus reference 5711/1A-001. The catalogue identified its Geneva Seal calibre 315 and January 2007 certificate, along with its box and outer box. Its SEK780,000 hammer price exceeded the SEK590,000 estimate. It was also a substantial part of Patek Philippe’s total: one watch accounted for almost half the money realised by the brand’s five lots.

That is a useful reminder about auction statistics. An exceptional lot can move a brand’s percentage considerably.

Cartier provided perhaps the most arresting example of bidding beyond expectations. Lot 3 was a circa-1980 gold Tank Normale with a “Paris” dial and manual-winding movement. Its estimate was SEK42,000. The hammer fell at SEK124,000, almost three times that figure.

During our previous visit, Kaplans’ watch specialist Georgios Batselas had already drawn attention to the brand. “Cartier has had an incredible upswing lately—both semi-vintage and modern models,” he told us. The Tank’s result gives that observation a particularly vivid illustration.

All 11 Cartier lots sold. They produced a combined SEK889,500 against aggregate estimates of SEK539,200, approximately 65 per cent above estimate. That broader result gives us more to discuss than one enthusiastic contest over a Tank.

Even so, estimates are the auction house’s assessments, and they can be conservative. Beating an estimate does not demonstrate a gain over the owner’s purchase price. Nor does it tell us what that watch would achieve on another day. It tells us what happened in this sale, which is interesting enough without making promises on its behalf.

Vintage Rolex Submariner — Rolex Submariner 5508 @calibre321

Audemars Piguet complicates the picture

There is another name we need to bring into the room.

Audemars Piguet’s eight lots all sold, generating SEK1,770,500. That put it second behind Rolex by aggregate hammer value, ahead of Patek Philippe. Its Royal Oak “Frosted” flyback chronograph, lot 74, was the auction’s most expensive watch at SEK980,000; that’s almost US$100K.

The white-gold chronograph was a limited edition of 200, and its hammer price came in just below the SEK990,000 estimate. The largest result of the day was therefore neither one of our four brands nor an example of bidding wildly beyond the estimate.

Including AP brings the five brands’ combined share of the sale to 84 per cent. It also keeps the discussion honest. The four-brand grouping is useful because it connects with the new-market statistic, but an auction has its own ranking. Individual consignments can make a considerable difference.

There was no universal guarantee of a sale, either. A Rolex Pearlmaster, lot 88, was marked “Passed.” Even the name contributing the most money to the auction could not produce a buyer at the required level for every watch.

That is where I find the secondary market most instructive. Brand recognition establishes interest. Buyers still have to decide whether they want this particular example at this particular price.

AP Royal Oak Frosted Chronograph — AP Royal Oak Frosted Chrono @calibre321

Why the auction house belongs in the story

At Kaplans last year, we spoke with Batselas about the work involved in making buyers comfortable with watches they might never inspect in person. Our visit took place while the collection was being prepared, with photography and catalogue work part of the activity around us.

He described growing confidence in bidding through digital catalogues, supported by detailed descriptions, photographs, and films. He also pointed to differences in local taste, including a following for Sjöö Sandström and strong interest in brands such as Panerai, Breitling, and Omega.

Those observations help explain why Stockholm is a worthwhile place to examine the broader market. Recognizable international names meet local collecting interests, and the individual watches require close inspection. A familiar dial does not remove the need to understand a replacement part, a restored surface, or a service requirement.

An auction house can help make that information available. Its catalogue lets a buyer move from “I like that watch” towards a more informed decision about the example being offered. For vintage watches, that work is especially valuable because decades of ownership can leave two outwardly similar pieces with very different histories. This also gives our photographs a role beyond illustration. They let readers see the watches under discussion, including the details that make one reference or one particular example interesting. The larger market story becomes easier to understand when it is attached to something you can actually look at.

Omega Railmaster on wrist — Omega Railmaster @calibre321

Back to Stockholm

The collection assembled for 14 November 2026 gives us a reason to continue watching.

In the catalogue supplied to us, dated 8 October, Rolex accounts for 38 lots, Patek Philippe for 13, Omega for 15, and Cartier for seven. Together, that is 73 of the 132 listed lots. Their combined catalogue estimates total SEK8,294,000 out of SEK12,249,000, or approximately 67.7 per cent.

The resemblance to last year’s hammer-value share is striking, although this is still a catalogue of estimates. No result has been achieved simply because a watch has been assigned a number. The selection and estimates may also change before the sale.

What we can say is that these four brands again occupy a substantial part of the offering. Next week, I will have the opportunity to spend time with the watches behind those figures and photograph the new collection. I am interested in the familiar names, of course, but also in what the catalogue totals might cause us to overlook.

That is the enjoyable tension in a sale like this. The brands that dominate the numbers help bring us through the door. Once inside, there is still a room full of watches to discover.

I will make time for the cinnamon buns, too.