By Brent Robillard

Competing for your wrist time

The morning after a watch launch is often more interesting than the party.

In December of 2023, during Art Basel Miami Beach, I found myself having breakfast with Adrian Bosshard and other members of the Rado team. We were there for the relaunch of the Anatom. The night before had delivered the full treatment: a glitzy, star-studded event, a distinctive watch, and plenty to celebrate. By any reasonable measure, it had been a success.

At breakfast, though, the conversation turned to the much larger business of getting people to buy Swiss watches.

Bosshard described an industry that commanded roughly 60 per cent of the worldwide value while accounting for only about two per cent of watches. Those were the proportions he put to me, and they have stayed with me ever since. Think about the imbalance. A very small slice of the watches being bought could account for well over half the money being spent.

His interest was in the opportunity. Even a modest change in American buying habits could bring an enormous amount of business into Switzerland. He was thinking about people who might be persuaded to spend more on a watch, and about how Rado could earn their attention.

Bosshard is a savvy operator. He is also someone whose success I am happy to see. In a February 2026 interview with Business Today, he discussed Rado’s high double-digit growth in India during 2025. Swatch Group’s first-half 2025 report also included Rado among six brands reporting US sales increases ranging from 10 to 30 per cent.

That is encouraging news for a friend, and for a brand I enjoy. It also brings me back to his breakfast-table arithmetic. There is plenty of room to persuade someone to buy a better watch. And now, more than ever, Switzerland has competition for that purchase.

Rado has avoided the decline in Swiss watch exports — The relaunch of the Swiss Made Rado Anatom was a luxurious affair @calibre321

The numbers behind the moment

In an October 2 report, the Financial Times, citing the Japan Clock & Watch Association, put the value of Japanese watch exports in 2025 at ¥207.9 billion, up 10 per cent. For that same period, Swiss watchmaking exports fell 1.7 per cent to CHF25.6 billion.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry confirms the Swiss figure. It also reports that wristwatch export volumes declined 4.8 per cent to 14.6 million units. Within the broader export total, wristwatches themselves accounted for CHF24.4 billion.

These figures deserve some care. They measure exports, and their growth rates are expressed in different currencies. They are not a till receipt for every watch sold worldwide, and they do not show that a Swiss customer defected to Japan. Production locations, product mix, currency movements, and the timing of shipments all complicate the comparison. Bosshard’s broad description of the market belongs to a different conversation again; it should not be read as a census of everything currently on people’s wrists.

Still, the divergence is worth investigating. The Swiss federation points to disrupted US trade, weakness in China, and the rising costs associated with gold and the Swiss franc. Japanese competition cannot reasonably be blamed for all of that.

Nor has every Swiss business continued downhill. Swatch Group’s July 2026 half-year announcement reported strong sales growth and improving momentum across its markets. A difficult 2025 is part of the backdrop to this story, rather than a verdict on every brand’s fortunes today.

What interests me is the choice forming in front of the customer. When someone decides to spend more seriously on a watch, how automatic is the turn towards Switzerland?

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The watches we were supposed to outgrow

Seiko and Citizen were among the first watches I owned. I made that observation in our Citizen versus Seiko comparison, and I suspect plenty of readers could say the same.

There is a familiar collecting story in which those names occupy the opening chapter. You buy something dependable and affordable, become interested in movements and finishing, and eventually find yourself looking at Longines, Tudor, Omega, or Rolex. The budget expands. Switzerland becomes the destination.

It is an understandable progression. I own Swiss watches that mean a great deal to me. But the implied graduation has always struck me as a little unfair to the Japanese watches left behind. A good Seiko does not become less interesting because you can now afford something else.

At The Calibrated Wrist, our Seiko and Citizen coverage continues to attract substantial interest through organic search. That is an observation from our own readership, with all the limitations of a single publication’s audience. I cannot turn those visits into sales figures, or tell you that every reader is shopping. I can say that people are actively looking for these watches and for useful information about them.

The attention also gives us a reason to take the affordable end of the hobby seriously. Someone comparing two Japanese sports watches may be making their most considered purchase of the year. A watch industry preoccupied with increasingly expensive objects can forget how much enthusiasm exists at that level.

If the first purchase is satisfying, the next one need not involve a change of nationality.

The Citizen Photon with Eco-Drive technology — The Citizen Photon celebrates decades of light-powered technology @calibre321

Beaucroft Contour GMT Tropical Teal

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Seiko asks us to reconsider the price tag

Seiko’s challenge is partly a product of its own success. It has spent so long being associated with accessible, dependable watches that an expensive Seiko can still provoke surprise. Collectors who happily accept a four-figure price from a Swiss name may find themselves asking how a Seiko got there.

The answer deserves a look at the individual watch. “Seiko” describes a broad range of products, and judging all of them against the price of a favourite old diver tells us very little about the watch in front of us.

King Seiko provides a useful example. Its current VANAC line includes titanium models powered by the 8L45, with approximately 72 hours of reserve and a stated daily rate of minus five to plus ten seconds. There is a tangible engineering proposition to examine, alongside the case, bracelet, and deliberately assertive styling.

None of this gives Seiko a free pass on value. Moving upmarket puts a watch beside stronger competition. The bracelet must justify scrutiny. So must the clasp, movement performance, proportions, and service proposition. A buyer is entitled to compare it with a similarly priced Swiss watch and decide the Swiss option suits them better.

That comparison is precisely the point. Seiko is asking to be considered in a wider range of purchases. Its affordable reputation gets it through the door, but the more expensive watches have to earn their place separately.

There is a risk here, too. Raise prices without making the improvement convincing and you can lose the people who trusted you in the first place. Japanese brands face the same obligation as everyone else: give the customer a reason to feel good about the money leaving their account.

King Seiko VANAC on wrist — King Seiko VANAC

Citizen has more than one answer

Citizen makes this conversation particularly interesting because its appeal extends across different ideas of what a good watch should do.

Our coverage has given me plenty of reasons to pay attention to Citizen alongside Seiko. The current Canadian automatic collection includes Tsuyosa, Zenshin, and Series8, as well as watches from The Citizen. That breadth offers an array of interesting choices. A collector can come for an accessible automatic and discover that the name on the dial has considerably more to offer.

At the more ambitious end, the Calibre 0200 makes the case in concrete terms. In its 2021 introduction, Citizen specified a free-sprung balance, approximately 60 hours of reserve, and an average daily accuracy of minus three to plus five seconds under its stated test conditions. Completed watches underwent 17 days of in-house testing. Citizen also explicitly credited the finishing expertise of La Joux-Perret, the Swiss manufacture that joined its group in 2012.

That last detail usefully complicates the flags we like to wave. Here is a Japanese company drawing on Swiss expertise within its own group to make a better watch. The commercial competition is real. So is the exchange of knowledge.

I would also hesitate to describe Citizen’s mechanical expansion as though it were finally moving beyond something embarrassing. Eco-Drive remains an excellent answer to an everyday problem. A watch powered by light can be exactly what its owner wants. Mechanical enthusiasm does not require us to pretend that convenience, accuracy, and reliability aren’t an important part of the equation.

Citizen can appeal to someone interested in the mechanism and to someone who would prefer never to think about it. That is a considerable advantage when the people outside our little enthusiast circle vastly outnumber those inside it.

Eco-Drive and Radio controlled accuracy — Citizen offers radio-controlled technology @calibre321

Grand Seiko and the secret hiding in plain sight

Grand Seiko is where the old collecting ladder becomes especially unhelpful.

Its international presence is relatively recent compared with the age of the brand. The international launch in 2010, and the establishment of Grand Seiko as a distinct brand with dedicated overseas operations, has provided the maker with a clearer identity and a business structure intended to bring them to more customers.

My own enthusiasm was reinforced at Watches and Wonders earlier this year. In my account of the fair, I singled out the manual-winding SBGZ011 and the Ushio diver among Grand Seiko’s highlights. They made a persuasive case for looking beyond the handful of Swiss launches that tend to dominate the conversation.

For me, Spring Drive remains one of watchmaking’s best-kept secrets outside enthusiast circles. That sounds ridiculous when we spend so much time discussing it among ourselves. Try explaining it to someone who enjoys watches but has never spent an evening arguing about escapements, though. There is a good chance you will be introducing something entirely new.

As Grand Seiko explains the system, a mainspring supplies the power. Its energy drives the gear train and hands while generating the tiny amount of electricity needed by a quartz oscillator and an integrated circuit. An electromagnetic brake regulates the glide wheel. There is no battery, and no conventional balance-and-escapement assembly controlling the rate.

The result is the continuous glide of the seconds hand that makes Spring Drive so immediately recognizable. The engineering is sophisticated; watching it is wonderfully uncomplicated. You can enjoy the movement of that hand long before you understand what makes it possible.

The recent advances are substantial. Grand Seiko rates the 9RB2 Spring Drive U.F.A. movement, introduced in 2025, at plus or minus 20 seconds per year. It has approximately 72 hours of reserve. U.F.A. stands for Ultra Fine Accuracy, and that annual figure applies to this movement, rather than to every Spring Drive watch.

For 2026, the Ushio 300 Diver brings the same stated annual accuracy to the 9RB1. It pairs a 40.8 mm titanium case with 300 metres of water resistance and an adjustable clasp. Those are useful details for anyone who wants to wear the thing, particularly those of us who appreciate a manageable case size.

At the other end of the display, the SBGZ011 uses the manual-winding 9R02, with approximately 84 hours of reserve. Grand Seiko lists the platinum, 50-piece edition at CAD110,000. It occupies a very different financial universe from an everyday Seiko, and illustrates how far Japanese watchmaking extends beyond the affordable category.

What I find compelling is the confidence to offer a different technical answer. Someone drawn to Spring Drive cannot satisfy that curiosity simply by buying a more familiar Swiss logo. The technology itself becomes a reason to choose the watch.

I sometimes wonder how many potential buyers have never had it properly explained to them. We can devote extraordinary amounts of space to a dial-colour change. Here is a whole way of keeping time that still needs an introduction.

Spring Drive technology is highly accurate — Grand Seiko offers Spring Drive technology and accuracy

A broader Japanese watch culture

My hands-on experience is strongest with Seiko, Citizen, and Grand Seiko, so I will leave the definitive G-Shock essay to someone who has spent more time with the watches. Casio nevertheless belongs in this discussion. Its MR-G collection combines the familiar G-Shock identity with sophisticated materials, finishing, and Japanese craft techniques. Its premium proposition is electronic. Folding Casio into a general story about a Japanese mechanical renaissance would miss what makes it interesting.

Orient keeps the accessible mechanical watch firmly in view, while Orient Star offers another expression of the company’s watchmaking. The Financial Times report also described Orient’s appeal to buyers in their twenties and thirties. That is a useful observation from the brand’s market, although it cannot establish the preferences of an entire generation.

The smaller makers widen the picture further. Kurono Tokyo gives collectors access to Hajime Asaoka’s design work in watches distinct from his handmade atelier pieces. Minase brings its own approach to case construction and finishing, while openly using Swiss mechanical movements. Neither needs to stand in for the whole of Japan. Their individuality is part of the attraction.

For a younger buyer encountering these watches online, the available choices are extensive. My suspicion is that discovering the object before absorbing the traditional brand hierarchy makes that hierarchy easier to question. That is an interpretation, not a demographic finding. Age alone certainly does not immunize anyone against the appeal of a famous name.

But a collector who falls for a particular Japanese case, dial, or movement has already found something to want. Switzerland must compete with that attachment.

Minase manufactures in Japan with Swiss movements — Minase brings Japanese manufacturing and finishing with Swiss calibres @calibre321

The next purchase

Is “Swiss Made” losing some of its gravitational pull? I think it is becoming easier for an interested buyer to look beyond it. That leaves a great deal of Swiss strength intact: recognizable designs, established service networks, formidable watchmaking, and the emotional weight of names people have admired for decades.

The Swiss brands that explain their value clearly still have every opportunity to succeed. Rado is a useful example precisely because Bosshard understood the work involved in reaching people who might never have considered his watches. His optimism at breakfast was grounded in the size of that opportunity.

Japanese brands are addressing the same people with an increasingly broad set of reasons to buy. Seiko can retain the enthusiast who grew up with it. Citizen can satisfy several very different definitions of a good watch. Grand Seiko can introduce a buyer to technology they did not know they wanted.

Those possibilities make more sense to me than a prediction that Japan is about to topple Switzerland. Watch boxes are wonderfully indifferent to national borders. An owner can love an Omega, enjoy a Citizen, and save for a Grand Seiko without feeling any contradiction.

I keep returning to that breakfast in Miami. Bosshard saw how much business could follow from a small shift in what people were willing to consider. I suspect he was right. The next customer with more money to spend has a lot of watches to discover, and an increasing number of them are Japanese.