By Brent Robillard
The winds of change in the luxury world
For more than a decade, the luxury sector seemed to defy gravity. Even during moments of economic strain, spending on high-end fashion, jewellery, and watches continued its steady climb, driven by global tourism, China’s expanding middle class, and a pandemic-era surge in disposable income. But the tone of the industry’s leading reports has changed.
As early as January 2025, Bain & Company and Altagamma warned of a slowdown, forecasting declines of two to five percent across personal luxury goods in their base scenario, and up to nine percent in a more pessimistic one, based upon what they are calling a “Demand Dip.” This, on top of a 2% drop in the market last year. Growth that once felt automatic now appears fragile. Consumer confidence, especially in Western markets, has softened under the weight of higher interest rates and inflation, while China, once the sector’s unstoppable engine, is entering what Reuters described as a “new normal” of essentially flat luxury spending.
McKinsey’s State of Fashion: Luxury Edition echoed similar concerns, noting that more than eighty percent of luxury’s growth over the past few years came from price increases rather than volume—a model that may finally be running out of steam. When prices rise faster than perceived value, even loyal customers begin to hesitate. This has sparked a broader philosophical question across the sector: what does luxury mean when the price of everything feels artificially inflated?
These macro-shifts cast a long shadow across all corners of the industry, but few sectors reveal the complexity of this slowdown more vividly than the watch world.
Luxury watch market downturn
A pressure test for Swiss watchmaking
The watch industry has experienced its own reckoning. In late 2024 and throughout 2025, several of the major conglomerates began signalling weaker results. LVMH’s watch and jewellery division, for example, posted declining sales in multiple quarters, with the Financial Times reporting a slump in fashion sales as an early warning of mounting sector-wide pressure. Richemont, similarly, saw more modest performance across several maisons outside of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels. Swatch Group endured significant headwinds as well: Longines, traditionally one of its strongest volume performers, saw softening demand, particularly in China, while Omega—though steady—has not been immune to the broader slowdown.
Breitling, fresh off aggressive expansion and rising average price points, likewise faces a more cautious global consumer, and recently saw S&P Global Ratings shave its credit score. According to WatchPro, Tudor, a brand that had long ridden the crest of steel-sports enthusiasm, has shown signs of cooling in certain markets, especially after years of rapid growth. And Fossil, whose financial struggles have been public for years, now stands as a kind of cautionary tale—a reminder that an industry depending too heavily on past formulas can quickly lose ground when consumer tastes and economic conditions shift.
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The slowdown comes at a time when geopolitical uncertainty—including renewed tariff discussions following meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and European watchmakers—leaves the luxury landscape unsettled. Swiss watch manufacturers are feeling the pinch of margin compression and supply-chain disruptions.
In moments like these, pricing becomes a central topic of conversation among enthusiasts. You can read Marc Levesque’s (my Time2Calibrate cohost) thoughtful and provoking lament here. The article’s core argument is that prices have outpaced perceived value, and that brands must recalibrate (pun intended). He’s not wrong.
The “Microbrand Paradox”: Value Soars, Caution Rises
While the big players navigate shifting terrain, the microbrand and independent space faces its own set of challenges—and opportunities.
On the value end of the spectrum, brands like Christopher Ward are thriving. Their business model—high specification, strong design discipline, and transparent pricing—has never looked more attractive. When an Aquitaine or C63 Sealander delivers high-level performance, finishing that rivals watches twice the price, and a design language that feels increasingly mature, customers take notice. Even the brand’s recent move into upscale production demonstrates that in-house movements with chiming mechanisms and free sprung balances need not demand astronomic prices.
In periods of uncertainty, value is its own kind of luxury.
But at the opposite end of the independent field, the story becomes more complex. High-end microbrands and boutique manufacturers such as AnOrdain, Fears, Atelier Wen, Sherpa, Minase, and others have built strong communities and compelling product narratives, yet they are not insulated from macro-economic cycles. Watches in the high four-figure to five-figure range occupy a delicate psychological space: they are aspirational objects, emotional investments, and often discretionary purchases deferred when uncertainty increases.
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In boom times, collectors confidently spend on experimentation—a fired-enamel dial from Scotland, an exquisitely engineered Japanese case from Minase, a bronze diver from Sherpa with a backstory as interesting as the watch itself. But in a slowdown, many buyers become more conservative. They default to brands with established secondary-market resilience or gravitate toward heritage names that feel “safe”… if they gravitate anywhere, at all. The challenge for boutique independents is not the quality of their product—which often surpasses industrial luxury—but their limited brand equity relative to the majors. Without large buffers or deep inventories, their margin for navigating turbulence narrows.
The irony is that these very brands are producing some of the most interesting, artisanal, emotionally resonant watches in the industry. They are the creative vanguard. Yet cautionary spending patterns mean they often feel economic tremors first.
Desire remains in the face of uncertainty
One brand owner I know shared a story that captures the moment better than any quarterly report. He told me that demand hasn’t disappeared—if anything, the desire remains as strong as ever—but uncertainty has taken the wheel. He watches his website analytics closely and can see shoppers adding watches to their baskets in healthy numbers, lingering over specifications, even returning multiple times. But when it comes to pressing “buy,” hesitation wins.
“It’s not that they don’t want the watch,” he told me. “It’s that they’re not sure if now is the right time to spend a thousand dollars.” That invisible pause—fuelled not by lack of interest, but by economic caution—is the hurdle so many independents are wrestling with today.
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Why a correction may be healthy
Despite the gloomy headlines and softened quarterly reports, there is a credible argument—one made by several analysts and echoed by voices inside the industry—that the current downturn is not only expected, but necessary. The COVID-era boom created distortions: waitlists spiralled, flippers flourished, and retail experiences lost the intimacy that once defined watch buying. Prices climbed faster than consumer sentiment. Brands pushed too much novelty with too little purpose.
On Episode 34 of Time2Calibrate, Andrew McUtchen put it plainly: he foresees a moment in the very near future where people will once again be able to buy a Rolex at retail. That sentence might terrify some market speculators, but for actual enthusiasts—the people who wear their watches—it is a breath of fresh air. It suggests a return to equilibrium, where value is grounded in product, not scarcity theatre.
A correction resets expectations. It encourages brands to revisit their identity, their pricing philosophy, their commitments to craft. It encourages customers to rediscover joy rather than chase hype. And it forces the industry to rebuild on sturdier, more sustainable foundations.
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Reimagining the retail experience
If the last decade was about expansion, volume, and globalisation, the next may be about intimacy and rediscovery. Time & Tide’s ongoing development of their Discovery Studios in Melbourne, London, and New York is a perfect expression of this shift. Instead of larger-than-life boutiques and high-pressure sales floors, these studios are designed as curated environments: places where watch lovers can touch, discuss, learn, and experience a brand or a collection in a thoughtful, human way.
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It’s a model that suggests retail’s future isn’t merely transactional; it’s relational. It emphasises community, immersion, and storytelling—the very qualities that drew many of us into watches to begin with.
And perhaps, ironically, the downturn creates space for more of these concepts to thrive. When growth slows, brands think more creatively. They remember that authenticity, not oversaturation, is what builds loyalty.
Even Christopher Ward has turned to brick and mortar “show rooms“—six of them, in fact. Note that the nomenclature is in and of itself a declaration of the philosophy behind them. In the brand’s own words: “Try on the pieces you’ve been eyeing, see exclusive models first-hand, and enjoy expert advice in a relaxed setting. The same warm welcome you know us for – just face to face.” Resolutely, not boutiques.
The rise of watch shows as an antidote to slowdown
Another powerful counterweight to the in dustry’s cooling momentum is the proliferation of regional and independent watch shows. From Geneva Watch Days to Wind Up to emerging enthusiast-driven events in major cities like Intersect, Minutes + Hours—and Canada’s own Timepiece Shows in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal—these gatherings offer something the traditional retail ecosystem often struggles to provide: genuine community, access, and discovery.
At a time when buyers are more cautious, watch shows allow collectors to handle pieces in person, meet the founders behind microbrands, and understand the stories that don’t always translate through digital campaigns alone. Much like Time & Tide’s Discovery Studios, or Christopher Wards Showrooms, these shows create intimate, educational environments that strengthen the emotional connection between enthusiasts and the brands they love. In moments of uncertainty, connection becomes currency—and watch shows, by design, are built on connection.
But, as with anything, these initiatives carry costs to the brand that must be balanced against the ledger. As with the construction and maintenance of brick and mortar locations, watch shows involve travel expenses, food bills, accommodation costs, and show fees. The secret sauce is one of scale and caution. There really is too much of a good thing.
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A horizon of hope?
The luxury watch industry is not collapsing. It is rebalancing—and rebalancing, historically, has always been the precursor to renewal. If you zoom out far enough, the cycles are clear: boom, overextension, correction, recalibration (see what I did there… again?), and resurgence. Every downturn sharpens the industry’s definition of value. Every slowdown puts craft back at the centre.
Microbrands that deliver real substance will not only survive but stand out. Heritage brands will rediscover their roots. And customers will continue to collect, to learn, and to share, because watches remain one of the few luxuries that bridge generations, passions, and cultures.
If Andrew McUtchen is right (and he often is) a more accessible Rolex, a more stable Tudor, a re-energised independent scene, and a more balanced global market may be right around the corner. It’s a future where buying a watch feels special again, not competitive; where the retail experience becomes as meaningful as the watch itself; and where value, not velocity, determines success.
As Rado CEO, Adrian Bosshard, told me once in an interview, “To buy a watch, of course you have rational reasons, but the biggest part is an emotional reason. You are buying by heart.” People will continue to celebrate milestones—graduations, promotions, anniversaries, and the birth of children—with a watch. Time moves on.
In a moment when the luxury sector is asking hard questions, the watch world has a chance to answer with clarity, creativity, and craft. And that, in the long view, is something worth looking forward to.
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About the author
Brent Robillard is a writer, educator, craftsman, and watch enthusiast. He is the author of four novels. You can follow him on Instagram.
Other Watchy Bits include op-ed pieces and articles of general interest. We’d love to hear your opinion in the comments section below.
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Awesome, Informative in a down-to-earth approach with real lived experiences that bode well for Watch World- and our shared World too. Challenging times make way for Creativity … and Excitement. Finely tuned article. Great read.